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A municipal formation's demographic development forecast using the methods of economic and mathematical modeling

Vol. 17, Iss. 2, FEBRUARY 2019

Received: 20 November 2018

Received in revised form: 14 December 2018

Accepted: 28 December 2018

Available online: 15 February 2019

Subject Heading: POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY

JEL Classification: С6, J11

Pages: 383–398

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.17.2.383

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation
voresh@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5779-4946

Nizamutdinov M.M. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation
marsel_n@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5643-1393

Subject This article discusses the issues of cyclical changes in population movement and the problem of population decline in the trends of demographic development of Ufa city.
Objectives The article aims to assess the current situation and future parameters of the demographic development of Ufa.
Methods For the study, we used the structural analysis, trend analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, in particular econometric methods, and the technique of ageing.
Results The article presents the results of analysis of the current demographic situation of the Republic of Bashkortostan and predicted values of its change according to various development scenarios.
Conclusions Changing the age structure of the population is an objective factor influencing all aspects of society's life. Any decision made to mitigate the risk and threats involved should be a comprehensive one.

Keywords: population, forecast, fertility, migration, economic-mathematical model

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