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Forecast of changes in the attractiveness of the Russian cities

Vol. 17, Iss. 4, APRIL 2019

Received: 12 February 2019

Received in revised form: 27 February 2019

Accepted: 22 March 2019

Available online: 15 April 2019

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING

JEL Classification: R11

Pages: 749–762

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.17.4.749

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ufa Federal Research Centre of Russian Academy of Sciences (UFRC RAS), Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation
voresh@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5779-4946

Nizamutdinov M.M. Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ufa Federal Research Centre of Russian Academy of Sciences (UFRC RAS), Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation
marsel_n@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5643-1393

Subject The research studies topical aspects of determining the attractiveness of cities as a whole and from perspectives of a certain economic entity.
Objectives The research evaluates how the attractiveness of large Russian cities changes over the mid-term time horizon.
Methods We conducted a factor and correlation-regression analysis so as to identify the correlation among socio-economic development indicators of the Russian cities. We used methods of structural analysis, trend analysis, scenario forecast.
Results We pointed out steps in forecasting the attractiveness of the Russian cities and determined key metrics of their attractiveness for people, business and tourists. We outlined a set of regression equations for the said aspects and proposed an approach to forming the integral indicator. The article sets out three scenarios reflecting how the situation may unfold and forecasts how the attractiveness of the Russian cities will change in the mid-term.
Conclusions and Relevance We traced the tendency of a persistent substantial gap among leading cities and most of the other Russian cities. The competition among cities is noted to increase in the bottom part of the ranking. The findings may be used to substantiate the strategic development of the Russian cities.

Keywords: Russian cities, attractiveness, rating, modeling, forecast

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