Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Abstracting and Indexing

РИНЦ
Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
Worldcat
LCCN Permalink
Google Scholar

Online available

EBSCOhost
Eastview
Elibrary
Biblioclub

Archiving

Cyberleninka (12 month OA embargo)

Practical use of certain tools to assess the financial instability of the region's economy

Vol. 17, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2019

Received: 15 May 2019

Received in revised form: 19 June 2019

Accepted: 26 June 2019

Available online: 15 August 2019

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING

JEL Classification: С3, С5, R15

Pages: 1540–1556

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.17.8.1540

Granitsa Yu.V. Institute of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Lobachevsky State University (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
ygranica@yandex.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject This article explores the economic and statistical tools adequate for predicting the financial instability of the regional economic system.
Objectives The article aims to analyze the existing methods and develop original ones for assessing the instability of the region's economy.
Methods For the study, I used statistical, calculation and constructive, economic and mathematical methods, and the methods of data analysis.
Results The article identifies a set of factors contributing to the onset of recession and presents an adequate logit model for its prediction. It shows the volatility of economic indicators affecting the financial instability of the region's economy and builds three alternative models to determine the variability of economic indicators.
Conclusions Fractal analysis and calculation of the cost measure of risk show a significant effect when analyzing the volatility of economic indicators. The logit models used provide a significant result if the data of social and economic indicators that characterize the social sector of the region's economy combined with the business sector is defined as regressors.

Keywords: financial instability, region, volatility, recession, fractal analysis

References:

  1. Malkina M.Yu. [Contribution of regions and their sectors to the financial instability of the Russian economy]. TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2018, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 118–130. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  2. Fedorova E.A., Fedorov F.Yu., Lazarev M.P. [Developing threshold critical values of macroeconomic indicators to predict crisis situations]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2016, vol. 22, iss. 22, pp. 17–26. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  3. Fedorova E.A., Khrustova L.E., Chekrizov D.V. [Industry characteristics of bankruptcy prediction models appliance]. Strategicheskie resheniya i risk-menedzhment = Strategic Decisions and Risk Management, 2018, no. 1, pp. 64–71. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  4. Fedorova E.A., Lukasevich I.Ya. [Forecasting financial crises using economic indicators in the CIS countries]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2012, no. 2, pp. 112–121. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  5. Ivanov P.A., Sakhapova G.R. [Financial instability in the region: assessment methods and elimination tools]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2014, no. 6, pp. 183–198. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  6. Pestova A.A., Pankova V.A., Akhmetov R.R., Goloshchapova I.O. [Developing a system of financial instability indices based on high frequency data]. Den'gi i kredit = Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2017, no. 6, pp. 49–58. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  7. Beloliptsev I.I., Farkhieva S.A. [Forecasting financial time series based on the fractal index]. Mir Nauki, 2014, no. 3. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  8. Vladimirova D.B. [Fractal index in the study of discrete time series determinateness]. Nauka i biznes: puti razvitiya = Science and Business: Development Ways, 2015, no. 8, pp. 39–44. URL: Link-2015-main.pdf (In Russ.)
  9. Gafarova E.A., Dobikova D.V. [Fractal approach to exchange crisis forecasting]. Ekonomika i ekologicheskii menedzhment = Economics and Environmental Management, 2012, no. 1, pp. 110–121. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  10. Ivanova Z.Sh., Makhosheva S.A. [Modeling of regional stability and regional development]. Izvestiya Kabardino-Balkarskogo nauchnogo tsentra RAN, 2014, no. 5, pp. 118–125. (In Russ.)
  11. Malkina M.Yu. [Instability of financial return of regional economies and its determinants]. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2018, no. 3, pp. 88–114. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  12. Zoidov K.H., Yankauskas K.S., Pirogov N.L. [Simulation of the system of fiscal relations in Russia in the framework of the development and expansion of the EAEU in conditions of instability. Part II]. Nauchnoe obozrenie. Seriya 1: Ekonomika i pravo = Scientific Review. Series 1. Economics and Law, 2016, no. 6, pp. 81–100. (In Russ.)
  13. Zoidov K.H., Yankauskas K.S., Pirogov N.L. [Simulation of the system of fiscal relations in Russia in the framework of the development and expansion of the EAEU in conditions of instability. Part III]. Segodnya i zavtra rossiiskoi ekonomiki = Today and Tomorrow of Russian Economy, 2016, no. 79-80, pp. 91–114. (In Russ.)
  14. Voronov A.A. [Economic and mathematical aspects of decision-making in the design of infrastructural objects]. Ekonomicheskii vektor = Economic Vector, 2017, no. 3, pp. 81–91. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  15. Karepina O.I., Korochentseva O.A. [Regional budgets balancing in the context of financial asymmetry reduction in the conditions of financial instability]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2016, vol. 14, iss. 9, pp. 113–128. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  16. Loginovskiy O.V., Dranko O.I., Hollay A.V. [Mathematical models for assessment of activity of industrial enterprises under the conditions of instability]. Vestnik Yuzhno-Ural'skogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Komp'yuternye tekhnologii, upravlenie, radioelektronika = Bulletin of South Ural State University. Series: Computer Technologies, Automatic Control and Radioelectronics, 2018, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 88–102. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  17. Slabinskaya I.A., Benderskaya O.B. [Development of comparative analysis and methods of comprehensive assessment of financial stability of enterprises]. Vestnik Astrakhanskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika = Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Economics, 2015, no. 3, pp. 134–140. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  18. Sadykov R.M., Migunova Yu.V., Gavrikova A.V., Ishmuratova D.F. [Social development of the region in a volatile economic environment: The key aspects]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2017, vol. 15, iss. 10, pp. 1906–1919. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  19. Sadovnichii V.A., Akaev A.A., Korotaev A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Kompleksnoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie razvitiya stran BRIKS v kontekste mirovoi dinamiki: monografiya [Comprehensive modelling and forecasting of the development of the BRICS countries in the context of global dynamics: a monograph]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2014, 382 p.

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8733 (Online)
ISSN 2073-1477 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 17, Iss. 9
September 2019

Archive