Regional Economics: Theory and Practice

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Practical use of certain tools to assess the financial instability of the region's economy

Vol. 17, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2019

Received: 15 May 2019

Received in revised form: 19 June 2019

Accepted: 26 June 2019

Available online: 15 August 2019


JEL Classification: С3, С5, R15

Pages: 1540–1556

Granitsa Yu.V. Institute of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Lobachevsky State University (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject This article explores the economic and statistical tools adequate for predicting the financial instability of the regional economic system.
Objectives The article aims to analyze the existing methods and develop original ones for assessing the instability of the region's economy.
Methods For the study, I used statistical, calculation and constructive, economic and mathematical methods, and the methods of data analysis.
Results The article identifies a set of factors contributing to the onset of recession and presents an adequate logit model for its prediction. It shows the volatility of economic indicators affecting the financial instability of the region's economy and builds three alternative models to determine the variability of economic indicators.
Conclusions Fractal analysis and calculation of the cost measure of risk show a significant effect when analyzing the volatility of economic indicators. The logit models used provide a significant result if the data of social and economic indicators that characterize the social sector of the region's economy combined with the business sector is defined as regressors.

Keywords: financial instability, region, volatility, recession, fractal analysis


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