Subject. The article addresses the high level of dependence of regional economic systems on imports of goods and services. Objectives. The focus is on the analysis of the impact of structural transformations in the economy on the growth of gross regional product, assessment of prospects for the formation of added value in the sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. Methods. The study draws on methods of simulation and econometric modeling. Results. Under the decline in imports by the most dependent economic activity, the gross decline in value added in the Republic of Tatarstan may amount to 14,9%. Conclusions. The results of the simulation underpin the need to develop operational strategic decisions that ensure the implementation of import substitution and technological sovereignty policies.
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